Pre-tourney Rankings
Big Ten
2013-14


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
10 Michigan St. 100.0%   4   26 - 8 12 - 6 26 - 8 12 - 6 +16.3      +9.2 12 +7.1 26 67.1 189 +16.0 14 +14.6 2
12 Wisconsin 100.0%   2   26 - 7 12 - 6 26 - 7 12 - 6 +15.6      +10.9 4 +4.7 58 62.5 300 +17.0 10 +14.2 3
13 Michigan 100.0%   2   25 - 8 15 - 3 25 - 8 15 - 3 +15.3      +12.8 3 +2.5 103 60.0 336 +17.2 8 +20.8 1
18 Ohio St. 100.0%   5   25 - 9 10 - 8 25 - 9 10 - 8 +14.4      +3.3 96 +11.1 5 64.8 254 +13.7 21 +11.8 5
20 Iowa 66.9%   11   20 - 12 9 - 9 20 - 12 9 - 9 +14.2      +10.9 5 +3.3 88 78.2 16 +10.9 44 +11.1 6
49 Nebraska 65.6%   11   19 - 12 11 - 7 19 - 12 11 - 7 +9.8      +3.3 95 +6.5 33 66.9 198 +10.9 46 +13.0 4
53 Minnesota 32.3%   19 - 13 8 - 10 19 - 13 8 - 10 +9.4      +5.4 46 +4.0 70 65.1 249 +10.1 49 +9.5 7
58 Indiana 0.1%   17 - 15 7 - 11 17 - 15 7 - 11 +8.8      +2.6 109 +6.2 38 74.9 44 +7.4 71 +8.2 9
59 Illinois 9.7%   19 - 14 7 - 11 19 - 14 7 - 11 +8.8      +0.9 147 +7.8 18 60.7 331 +9.8 55 +8.7 8
76 Penn St. 0.0%   15 - 17 6 - 12 15 - 17 6 - 12 +6.8      +3.9 76 +2.9 95 67.8 169 +5.8 85 +6.7 11
84 Purdue 0.0%   15 - 17 5 - 13 15 - 17 5 - 13 +6.2      +2.3 118 +3.9 75 74.2 48 +5.7 87 +5.1 12
116 Northwestern 0.0%   14 - 19 6 - 12 14 - 19 6 - 12 +3.6      -4.8 286 +8.4 13 59.4 338 +5.4 93 +7.1 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Michigan St. 2.0 100.0
Wisconsin 2.0 100.0
Michigan 1.0 100.0
Ohio St. 5.0 100.0
Iowa 6.0 100.0
Nebraska 4.0 100.0
Minnesota 7.0 100.0
Indiana 8.0 100.0
Illinois 8.0 100.0
Penn St. 10.0 100.0
Purdue 12.0 100.0
Northwestern 10.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Michigan St. 12 - 6 100.0
Wisconsin 12 - 6 100.0
Michigan 15 - 3 100.0
Ohio St. 10 - 8 100.0
Iowa 9 - 9 100.0
Nebraska 11 - 7 100.0
Minnesota 8 - 10 100.0
Indiana 7 - 11 100.0
Illinois 7 - 11 100.0
Penn St. 6 - 12 100.0
Purdue 5 - 13 100.0
Northwestern 6 - 12 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Michigan St.
Wisconsin
Michigan 100.0% 100.0
Ohio St.
Iowa
Nebraska
Minnesota
Indiana
Illinois
Penn St.
Purdue
Northwestern


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Michigan St. 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 4   0.7 5.0 32.1 51.5 10.2 0.5 0.0
Wisconsin 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 2   10.0 41.8 38.4 9.6 0.2 100.0%
Michigan 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 2   13.5 50.3 32.5 3.7 0.0 100.0%
Ohio St. 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 5   0.6 8.0 36.2 37.4 16.6 1.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Iowa 66.9% 0.0% 66.9% 11   0.0 1.3 4.5 16.9 39.0 5.2 33.1 66.9%
Nebraska 65.6% 0.0% 65.6% 11   0.1 2.4 8.3 21.3 30.8 2.6 34.5 65.6%
Minnesota 32.3% 0.0% 32.3% 0.0 0.2 2.0 16.6 13.4 0.0 67.7 32.3%
Indiana 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.1%
Illinois 9.7% 0.0% 9.7% 0.0 0.2 5.3 4.2 90.3 9.7%
Penn St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Purdue 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Northwestern 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Michigan St. 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 85.9% 56.5% 28.8% 14.7% 7.1% 3.1%
Wisconsin 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 89.6% 56.7% 29.7% 14.0% 6.2% 2.7%
Michigan 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 90.3% 56.2% 28.9% 13.4% 5.9% 2.4%
Ohio St. 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 68.0% 33.3% 15.0% 6.7% 2.6% 0.9%
Iowa 66.9% 23.8% 58.4% 32.4% 14.5% 6.9% 2.8% 1.1% 0.3%
Nebraska 65.6% 14.9% 57.8% 22.7% 6.6% 2.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
Minnesota 32.3% 25.2% 19.1% 6.6% 1.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Indiana 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Illinois 9.7% 8.3% 5.3% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Penn St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Purdue 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northwestern 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 5.7 5.3 31.9 46.6 15.4 0.9
1st Round 100.0% 5.4 11.1 43.8 38.6 6.4 0.2
2nd Round 100.0% 4.0 0.0 0.4 5.3 23.7 42.4 23.8 4.2 0.2
Sweet Sixteen 96.7% 2.3 3.3 18.8 37.4 30.3 9.2 0.9 0.0
Elite Eight 75.4% 1.1 24.6 44.4 25.9 4.8 0.3
Final Four 44.6% 0.5 55.4 37.4 6.9 0.3
Final Game 22.1% 0.2 77.9 21.2 0.9
Champion 9.5% 0.1 90.5 9.5